Last updated on August 18, 2023
Wall Street is poised on the precipice of anticipation, with market watchers and traders eagerly awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve’s next move. A growing consensus suggests that the Federal Reserve might hit the brakes on its ongoing interest-rate hikes this September.
All eyes are now fixed on the imminent release of the minutes from the pivotal July 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, as they are expected to provide essential insights into the central bank’s future course of action.
Scheduled for release at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, these minutes are slated to shed light on how Fed officials perceive the robustness of the United States economy. Their release serves as a compass, guiding analysts and investors toward the trajectory of monetary policy set by the officials.
This edition of the minutes comes at a crucial juncture, aligning with the forthcoming annual summer convention in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and amid an economic landscape riddled with divergent signals.
Recent economic reports have unveiled a labor market showing vigor yet tempering its pace, while inflation has taken a marked step back from its levels a year ago.
Despite these mixed indicators, the Federal Reserve made the calculated choice to nudge interest rates upwards by a quarter of a percentage point during its July assembly.
As a result, the fed-funds rate now stands within the range of 5.25% to 5.5%, marking its highest upper limit in over two decades.
The decision to raise rates in July, after abstaining from a hike in June, accompanied by the officials’ observation that the U.S. economy was undergoing “moderate” expansion, suggested a bolstered outlook for the Federal Reserve.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, underscored during the July press conference that the institution’s economic projections no longer included a recession in the near future.
Powell stated, “The staff now has a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year in the forecast, but given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession.”
In the aftermath of the July meeting, governmental data continued its narrative of ambiguity. The July employment report depicted fewer job additions than expected, yet the unemployment rate dipped to a commendable 3.5%, and wage gains maintained their steadfastness.
Meanwhile, headline inflation edged up to 3.2% the previous month, even as core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, decelerated to an annual pace of 4.7% from June’s 4.8%.
The country’s economic growth has displayed no signs of reticence either. The second quarter witnessed a faster-than-anticipated expansion of the U.S. economy, surging at a rate of 2.4%, outpacing the initial estimate of 2% for the first quarter.
The July retail sales growth, released on Tuesday, perpetuated this growth trend, revealing stronger spending figures than foreseen for the preceding month. This phenomenon occurs against the backdrop of an ongoing struggle in the manufacturing sector.
With a resilient labor market, robust wage gains, moderated inflation, and sturdy household finances, consumer spending has emerged as a driving force in the economy.
The next gathering of the Federal Open Market Committee, set for September 19-20, will benefit from a fresher batch of data on labor market dynamics, inflation trends, and other critical economic gauges.
However, unless a drastic shift in signals transpires within the coming weeks, economists and market participants are placing their bets on another pause from Fed officials.
As of Tuesday, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining the benchmark rate unchanged in September stood at 88.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a reliable tracker of interest-rate futures.
Nonetheless, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the deliberative nature of the decision-making process, signaling that the extent of forthcoming increases will be scrutinized meeting by meeting, contingent upon evolving data.
Powell stated, “I would say it is certainly possible that we would raise funds again at the September meeting if the data warranted. And I would also say it’s possible that we would choose to hold steady at that meeting. We’re going to be making careful assessments, as I said, meeting by meeting.”
(Original Article Source: Barron’s)
