Just like everything in life, I believe that there isn’t just one way to achieve a goal. Investing is no different. Hence, no right, no wrong. Now that the earnings season is almost over, I wanted to share:
- My take on the recent reports
- And my current allocation
What you'll learn:
⓵ My thoughts on the latest earnings reports
DDOG: 9.5/10
Expected: $310-315m
Results: Outstanding
Concerns: No major concerns here. Just the QoQ guidance is not as strong as previously.
Decision: Added to my position
Thoughts: Has the potential to keep growing at hypergrowth levels and to even accelerate a bit.
BILL: 9.5/10
Expected: $150m
Results: Outstanding
Concerns: No major concerns here. Just want to see the acquisitions keep providing leverage to the entire organization.
Decision: Added to my position both before and after earnings.
Thoughts: Has the potential to keep growing at hypergrowth levels without signs of deceleration at the moment.
UPST: 9/10
Expected: $300m
Results: Excellent
Concerns: Some concerns regarding the level of growth going forward. And how fast other flavors of credit can kick in (auto, mortgage).
Decision: Kept my position
Thoughts: I can’t forecast growth. Lumpiness. However, I decided right after Q3 to sell most of my shares and only kept a small position which I plan to keep between 5-10% max.
ZS: 8/10
Expected: $255-260m
Results: Very good
Concerns: My only concern was the slower growth (59%) in billings which as explained in the call was mostly because of the government but since they got approval now it will help with this.
Decision: Added to my position after hours when it dropped.
Thoughts: ZS seems like a leader in its space. Solid growth at scale.
NET: 7.5/10
Expected: $190-195m
Results: Solid
Concerns: Can they show faster acceleration? Will investors lose interest if it keeps growing at 50% only? Is the valuation too rich?
Decision: I initiated a position in NET when it dropped to $80 a few weeks back. I also added a bit after the earnings. I don’t plan to sell but I’ll trim when it goes over 12-15%.
Thoughts: It seems that NET can keep growing at a steady pace and this gives investors reassurance especially since the rich valuation dropped a lot already.
MNDY: 7/10
Expected: 98m to maintain their 18% QoQ and 95% YoY.
Results: Solid? Or Disappointing?
Concerns: QoQ in Q4’19 was 26% (accelerated from 24% in Q3’19). Then, in Q4’20 was 18% (an acceleration from 17% in Q3’20). And now Q4’21 15% (deceleration from 18% in Q3’21 and 20% in Q2’21). That is my main concern and not the profitability or the crazy spend on the super bowl ad, or even the low(er) guidance.
Decision: Sold half my overweight (18%) position as soon as the report came out. Sold the other half a few days later when the stock climbed a bit higher.
Thoughts: Kudos to those who kept their allocation small on this. It seems that concerns of the competition were correct. I’m sure the company will do well. I just took other opportunities and moved funds elsewhere where I have more confidence for the foreseeable future.
ZI: 6.5/10
Expected: $222m
Results: Met expectations in terms of revenues but very weak guidance.
Concerns: relatively slow growth. Not enough leverage kicking in from acquisitions? Very weak QoQ (3%) and FY (34%) guidance.
Decision: Sold my small position right after the report. Didn’t even listen to the call.
Thoughts: I like other companies better.
SEMR: 5/10
Expected: $54.25m to keep them above 10% QoQ.
Results: Mediocre
Concerns: Even with half a million less, the QoQ went from 12%, 9.5%, to 9% now. And the guidance for the next Q (even if they beat it as usual) it will be even less at 8% QoQ which annualizes to 36% (1.08^4=36). Also, the guidance for the FY is too slow at 30% YoY even if they actually come closer to 40%.
Decision: Sold my entire position after the report and reallocated the funds to SNOW when it dropped to $260.
AMPL: 4/10
Expected: 52$ for the same QoQ growth
Results: Bad
Concerns: I was expecting a minimum of $52m to keep the same QoQ growth. Yes, even 2m less is concerning. Why didn’t they surprise with 2 more million on the upside? If they struggle with small numbers, then what happens when they approach bigger ones?
Decision: Sold my entire position as soon as the report came out. Didn’t even listen to the call.
Thoughts: Too soon. Too small. Too young. And too slow.
SNOW: TBA
Expecting: $372-380m
S: TBA
Expecting: $67-70m
⓶ My current allocation
- DDOG 19%
- BILL 17%
- ZS 17%
- S 17%
- SNOW 12%
- NET 12%
- UPST 6%
I don’t hold any cash. I don’t have an emergency fund. And I don’t have an opportunity fund. Me and my wife work 2 jobs each and live in a 1-bedroom flat along with our 4 cats with relatively low living expenses (I don’t even own a car).
The reason I don’t have a fund of any kind was to avoid temptation/distraction (we both have health insurance). However, moving forward I decided to start slowly-slowly creating a fund in case we have a child soon.
[ps: Sometimes I wonder if we put more emphasis on money than on anything else. Our time is limited. Friends and family go away. Lives end every single day. I understand that we only see what we have in front of us. But some others have it a lot worse.
And this is the main reason for investing for me. To, maybe, have something better (both financially and educationally) to leave behind to the next generation.
And this is why, I believe, concentrated investing is superior to index investing since indexing won’t teach you the process and all that. And financial education is not the icing on the cake. It’s the cake itself.]
